GenPro Quarterly Bulletin
April – June 2023
The Commercial team continuously monitors the market, aiming to provide updates and an indication of the expected price development of the most important commodities.
According to the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook published in April 2023, the global commodity prices fell 14% in the first quarter and by the end of March they were roughly 30% below their historic peak in June 2022.
The surge in prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has decreased due to a combination of slowing economic activity, favourable winter weather and a global re-allocation of commodity trade flows.
For the remainder of this year, commodity prices are forecasted to remain broadly unchanged. However, prices are still expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, which will continue to weigh on affordability and food security. The upside risks to prices include possible disruptions to the supply of energy and metals (partly due to trade restrictions), intensifying geopolitical tensions, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in China’s industrial sector, and adverse weather events. Disappointing global growth is the major downside risk.
According to FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), April averaged up 0.6% from March and standing 19.7% below its value in the corresponding month last year. The slight rebound in the FFPI in April was led by a steep increase in the sugar price index, along with an upturn in the meat price index, while the cereals, dairy and vegetable oil price indices continued to drop.
According to Drewry World Container Index, a 40-feet container dropped by 78% when compared with the same week last year and 83% since the peak reached in September 2021 indicating that we are returning to more normal prices. However, the container index still remains 21% higher than average pre-pandemic rates in 2019.
The development of prices depends on several factors which can dramatically change the predictions and forecasts. These are:
- World economic crises triggered by armed conflicts, pandemics and natural catastrophes
Lube Oil Desk
The second quarter of 2023 is seeing some slight price pick-up in general compared to the first quarter.
While prices dropped significantly over the fourth quarter of 2022, easing the pressure on Base Oil prices, they are expected to rise over the next 18 months, though the pace of the increase will be fairly gentle. The market expects that Gasoil prices are heading towards a potentially lower level and an increase in base oils supply in the second half of this year would be possible if needed.
The impact on supply and price could also follow, after early April OPEC’s announcement that it will reduce its output by a further 1.16m bbl/day starting in May. Base Oil capacities face no major maintenance cycle for 2023 in Europe. However use and prioritisation for Base Oils is still dependent on alternative refined products. Since different products are produced in refineries, often the production is steered towards the most profitable one, for example Diesel vs Base Oil or vice versa.
Crude Oil and Diesel future trends and volatility are to be watched as it will be a key driver for balancing the production. In Asia, Bulk Marine transportation status is likely to improve significantly if China trade and routes were to “reactivate” fully.
US market robustness and South American Economies are expected to be key drivers for lubricant market demand. Base Oil supply is expected to stay “healthy”.
GenPro’ s dedicated Lube Desk service is constantly monitoring suppliers’ cost fluctuation in line with the Base Oil market, with specific and customised price analysis for all of its members, tracking lube suppliers’ price patterns.
2020-2023 Base Oil fluctuation for Asia, America and Europe
Compliance & Sustainability Updates
The Compliance and Sustainability readiness trend of our suppliers’ pool remains positive. Through increased collaboration and engagement with our suppliers, we have seen a marked improvement in their commitment to meeting our standards.
In the second quarter of 2023, we conducted a total of 48 audits, both physical (14) and virtual (34). These audits were instrumental in evaluating supplier compliance, sustainability practices, and identifying areas for improvement. By introducing virtual audits, we have been able to save substantial travel costs and reduce our carbon footprint. Our overall Supplier Compliance and Sustainability Readiness Score remains at 41%. While this score is consistent with the previous quarter, we have implemented our 2023 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to provide a more comprehensive assessment of our suppliers’ readiness. These new metrics will enable us to drive deeper improvements and enhance supply chain efficiencies.
GENPRO CONTRACTED SUPPLIERS
NEW TEAM MEMBER
She holds the position of Compliance and Sustainability Officer and assists in the development and monitoring of the company’s compliance and sustainability projects.