GenPro Quarterly Bulletin
July – September 2023
The Commercial team constantly monitors the market, aiming to provide updates and an overview of the expected price development of the most important commodities.
According to the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook published in June 2023, global growth is set to slow substantially in the second half of 2023, amid tight monetary policy to rein in inflation pressures. Moreover, the inflation (particularly core), has been persistent, but is projected to decline gradually as demand weakens and commodity prices moderate. Additionally, the global financial tightening has weighed particularly heavily on countries with greater vulnerabilities.
In August 2023, the World Bank stated that the energy prices jumped nearly 6% in July, led by 17% in natural gas and 7.8% in oil. Non-energy prices rose by 0.7%. Food prices gained 0.9% whereas beverages eased by 1.8% – meanwhile raw material changed little. Fertiliser prices have increased by 5.3%. Metal prices gained 0.4%, led by tin (5.6%) whilst precious metals increased by 0.9%.
In August 2023, the FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged down 2.1% from July, reversing the rebound registered last month and pushing the index as much as 24% below its peak reached in March 2022. The drop reflected declines in the price indices for dairy products, vegetable oils, meat and cereals, while the sugar price index increased moderately.
Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by 5.2% in week 38 and dropped by 66.9% when compared with the same week last year. The freight rates dropped as follows (per 40ft container):
- Shanghai – Genoa and Shanghai – Rotterdam dropped 10%
- Shanghai – New York dropped by 4%
- Shanghai – Los Angeles dropped by 3%
- Rotterdam – New York and Los Angeles – Shanghai dropped by 2%
- New York – Rotterdam increased by 2%
In general, the prices are still expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, which will continue to weigh on affordability and food security. The upside risks to prices include possible disruptions to the supply of energy and metals (partly due to trade restrictions), intensifying geopolitical tensions, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in China’s industrial sector, and adverse weather events. The major downside risk is slow global growth.
Lube Oil Desk
Even though we see a rather flat market, a slight and slow increase is expected. A further announcement of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and a reduction in supply from Russia (as a consequence of current sanctions) could support this price increase.
Natural gas prices remain relatively stable, as market fundamentals are relatively flat. However, they are still at the higher end of typical pre-war levels and forward curves indicate the likelihood of price rises after the summer of 2023, well above typical norms. Both crude and natural gas pricing have helped keep base oils producer costs down compared with the second half of last year.
According to Oil Majors also, despite a relatively flat market, the price fall has ended with the price now stabilised. An increase is expected across all three regions (Asia, Europe, Americas) in the last quarter of the year. The price increase is especially expected in Europe, thanks to potential de-stocking as well as alternative flows reaching Europe.
In Asia, the price is set to bottom up as momentum is still driving prices due to the combination of low demand whilst there is abundant production in India as well as China. However, these are expected to prevent such a fall and create support for the prices.
It is also evident that Base Oil supply capability is no longer a clear concern for the Asia-Pacific region. With China and India now importing less and less material to meet their needs, if arbitration is used for other commodity products at regional/international refineries it may create scarcity and price increase for the market.
In the US also, the price is expected to halt its fall due to an increase in feedstock costs, coupled with a cautious attitude due to the approaching hurricane season.
Base Oil SN500 Graph
Compliance & Sustainability Updates
In the third quarter of 2023, we conducted a total of 39 audits, both physical (24) and virtual (15).
By identifying areas for improvement, opportunities, impacts and risks throughout the audit lifecycle, we’re also able to strengthen our relationship with our suppliers.
Through our continuous efforts, the Compliance and Sustainability readiness of our suppliers is steadily increasing. The implementation of our Compliance & Sustainability Action Plan has significantly improved collaboration with our suppliers, which helps to increase transparency throughout our supply chain. These are vital core ingredients for the fulfilling of GenPro’s Sustainability Strategy.As part of GenPro’s continuous efforts towards a more sustainable marine ecosystem and in order to meet member requirements, we continue our efforts towards the reduction of single use plastics (SUPs) onboard and ashore. To achieve this we have SUP Free Alternative Items for 27 product codes which are available across 21 countries. The number of this is expected to increase over time as suppliers adjust to the requirement
GENPRO CONTRACTED SUPPLIERS
NEW TEAM MEMBER
Kausaliya joined GenPro in August 2023. She graduated from University of Science Malaysia with a degree in accounting and is currently pursuing a diploma in Procurement and Supply Chain through the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS).
In her prior role with a ship chandling company, she excelled in vendor management, cost optimisation, inventory control, and ensuring meticulous compliance and documentation.